If you’ve been keeping an eye on mortgage rates or your savings account yield, you know the Federal Reserve’s next move matters. The next rate decision arrives on June 17, 2026, when the Federal Open Market Committee wraps up a two-day meeting.
Current Fed Funds Rate Target: 3.50%–3.75% ·
Next FOMC Meeting: June 16–17, 2026 ·
Date of Next Rate Decision: June 17, 2026 ·
2026 FOMC Meetings Scheduled: 8 ·
Probability of a Rate Cut in June (as of June 15, 2026): 45% (CME FedWatch)
Quick snapshot
- Next FOMC meeting: June 16–17, 2026 (Federal Reserve Board)
- Decision announced June 17 at 2:00 p.m. ET (Equals Money)
- Current federal funds rate: 3.50%–3.75% (Equals Money)
- Whether the Fed will cut rates at the June 2026 meeting (Goldman Sachs Research)
- Exact timing of future rate cuts beyond June (J.P. Morgan)
- Whether interest rates will return to 3% in 2026 (Equals Money)
- FOMC blackout period: June 6–18, 2026 (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
- June meeting includes Summary of Economic Projections (asterisked) (Chicago Fed)
- Seven more scheduled meetings remain in 2026 (Federal Reserve Board)
- Rate decision live at 2:00 p.m. ET on June 17 (Equals Money)
- Press conference follows at 2:30 p.m. ET (Bloomberg)
- Market-implied probability of a cut: 45% (CME FedWatch via Charles Schwab)
Here are the key numbers for the upcoming decision.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Fed Funds Rate | 3.50%–3.75% (Equals Money) |
| Next FOMC Meeting | June 16–17, 2026 (Federal Reserve Board) |
| Next Decision Date | June 17, 2026 (Federal Reserve Board) |
| 2026 Meetings Remaining After June | 7 (Chicago Fed) |
| Date of Last Rate Change | Unchanged since prior meeting; last change in 2025 (none in 2026) (Charles Schwab) |
| Blackout Period for June Meeting | June 6–18, 2026 (Chicago Fed) |
| FOMC Vote at March 2026 Meeting | 11–1 in favor of holding rates at 3.5%–3.75% (Bloomberg) |
| Goldman Sachs Forecast for Next Cut | No cuts until June 2027 (Goldman Sachs Research) |
| J.P. Morgan View on 2026 | Hold steady; next move possibly a 25 bp hike (J.P. Morgan) |
| Kalshi Settlement Trigger | 2:05 p.m. ET after June 17 statement (Kalshi) |
What date is the next Fed rate decision?
June 17, 2026 announcement
- The next rate decision falls on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, the second day of the FOMC meeting (Federal Reserve Board).
- This meeting is designated with an asterisk, meaning it will include an updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and a new dot plot (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago).
- The decision is typically released at 2:00 p.m. ET (6:00 p.m. GMT), followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET (Equals Money).
How the FOMC decision time works
The FOMC releases its policy statement and interest rate decision on the afternoon of the second day of each scheduled meeting. The exact time is usually 2:00 p.m. ET, but it can shift by a few minutes. At the same moment, the Fed publishes its post-meeting statement explaining the rationale. The press conference half an hour later adds context from the Chair.
Market watchers often watch the 2:00 p.m. ET release for immediate reactions in stocks, bonds, and the dollar.
The implication: investors should prepare for market volatility around that Wednesday afternoon window.
When is the Fed’s next meeting? See the full schedule for 2026
Full 2026 FOMC calendar
The Federal Reserve has confirmed the complete meeting schedule for the year.
| Meeting | Dates | Decision Day | SEP Meeting? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | January 27–28 | January 28 | No |
| 2 | March 17–18 | March 18 | Yes |
| 3 | April 28–29 | April 29 | No |
| 4 | June 16–17 | June 17 | Yes |
| 5 | July 28–29 | July 29 | No |
| 6 | September 15–16 | September 16 | Yes |
| 7 | October 27–28 | October 28 | No |
| 8 | December 8–9 | December 9 | Yes |
Eight meetings per year, each spanning two days. The four meetings marked with an asterisk (March, June, September, December) include the Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot, which give clues about the future path of rates.
January 27–28 meeting
The first meeting of 2026 saw the Fed hold rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%. No press conference was held, but the statement noted that inflation remained elevated.
March 17–18 meeting
At the March meeting, the FOMC voted 11–1 to keep the target range unchanged, with one dissenter favoring a quarter-point cut. The accompanying dot plot projected only one rate cut in 2026 and one in 2027, according to Bloomberg.
April 28–29 meeting
The April meeting saw the Fed maintain the 3.50%–3.75% range. No decision has been announced yet as of this writing beyond the hold.
June 16–17 meeting
The next meeting, and the one everyone is watching. It will produce the June rate decision and an updated SEP.
July 28–29 meeting
A mid-summer check-in without a new dot plot.
September 15–16 meeting
September brings another SEP and dot plot update, which could reset expectations if inflation data shifts.
October 27–28 meeting
A fall meeting without a dot plot, but a possible venue for a policy shift if the data supports one.
December 8–9 meeting
The year-end meeting with a full projection set. This is often where the Fed signals changes for the next year.
The pattern: SEP meetings create the biggest market-moving events each quarter.
Will the Fed cut rates in October?
October 27–28 meeting details
The FOMC has an October meeting scheduled for October 27–28, 2026. The September meeting takes place September 15–16, and the October meeting follows roughly six weeks later. This is a non-SEP meeting, meaning no dot plot or Summary of Economic Projections will accompany the decision.
Market expectations for a cut at the October meeting are still forming. As of June 2026, the CME FedWatch Tool (Charles Schwab) showed a 45% probability of a rate cut at the June meeting. If no cut happens in June, attention will shift to July and then October.
Market expectations for an October rate cut
Prediction markets like Kalshi allow traders to bet on the rate after each meeting, including contracts for the June 17 and subsequent meetings. The October 27–28 meeting is a live decision point, and traders can position for a change there.
Without a SEP release in October, the Fed would need to signal a move through speeches and minutes alone. The market typically prices lower odds for non-SEP meetings because there is less new economic context released.
Will the Fed cut the rate in September?
September 15–16, 2026 meeting
The September FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 15–16. It is one of the four “asterisked” meetings with a full SEP and dot plot. That makes it a natural venue for a policy shift if the data supports one.
As of June 2026, the CME FedWatch Tool (Charles Schwab) gives a 45% probability for a cut at the June meeting, but probabilities for later meetings are lower. Goldman Sachs Research does not expect any cuts in 2026, pushing the first move to June 2027. J.P. Morgan sees the next move as a possible hike, not a cut.
Factors influencing the September decision
- Inflation (CPI and PCE) data through August 2026
- Employment reports (jobs, unemployment rate, wage growth)
- GDP growth estimates and consumer spending
- Global economic conditions and trade policy
These factors will determine whether the Committee sees room to ease or feels compelled to hold.
If Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan are right, the Fed won’t cut in September — or at any point in 2026. That means investors and homeowners expecting lower rates may need to adjust their timelines toward 2027 or later.
The consequence: borrowing costs may remain elevated through the end of the year.
What is the Fed interest rate decision prediction?
CME FedWatch Tool probabilities
The CME FedWatch Tool translates futures pricing into probabilities of rate increases or decreases at each FOMC meeting. As of June 15, 2026, it showed a 45% chance of a quarter-point cut at the June meeting (Charles Schwab). This implies that the market is roughly split: a coin flip on a cut, with a slight bias toward holding.
Economist forecasts
Major bank research desks are more skeptical. Goldman Sachs chief U.S. economist David Mericle has stated that Goldman Sachs Research “does not expect the Fed to lower rates until 2027,” with a terminal rate of 3.0%–3.25% after cuts in June and December 2027. J.P. Morgan projects no cuts in 2026 and sees a 25-basis-point hike as more likely than a cut.
Smaller banks and trading platforms surveyed by Equals Money expect one small cut later in 2026, but note that “any potential 2026 rate cuts will depend heavily on incoming economic data, particularly inflation.”
The takeaway: traders and borrowers should watch the CPI and PCE releases between now and September.
Timeline: FOMC meetings and rate decisions in 2026
- January 27–28, 2026: FOMC meeting; rate unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%
- March 17–18, 2026: FOMC meeting; rate unchanged (11–1 vote)
- April 28–29, 2026: FOMC meeting; rate unchanged
- June 16–17, 2026: Next FOMC meeting; decision due June 17
- July 28–29, 2026: Scheduled FOMC meeting
- September 15–16, 2026: Scheduled FOMC meeting (SEP meeting)
- October 27–28, 2026: Scheduled FOMC meeting
- December 8–9, 2026: Final scheduled FOMC meeting of 2026 (SEP meeting)
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and ABA Banking Journal
Each SEP meeting (March, June, September, December) offers a clearer picture of the Committee’s rate path, but those projections are not commitments. The actual decisions will depend on real-time data, which can shift odds dramatically between meetings.
The implication: non-SEP meetings like July and October carry lower odds of a surprise move.
Clarity check: What we know for sure vs. what’s uncertain
Confirmed facts
- The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for June 16–17, 2026 (Federal Reserve Board).
- The rate decision will be announced on June 17, 2026 at 2:00 p.m. ET (Equals Money).
- The current federal funds rate target is 3.50%–3.75% (Equals Money).
- The 2026 FOMC schedule includes eight meetings (Chicago Fed).
- The June meeting is an “asterisked” meeting that includes the SEP and dot plot (Chicago Fed).
- The blackout period for the June meeting runs June 6–18, 2026 (Chicago Fed).
What’s unclear
- Whether the Fed will cut rates at the June 2026 meeting.
- The exact timing of future rate cuts beyond the current meeting.
- Whether interest rates will return to 3% in 2026.
- Whether the next move is a cut or a hike (J.P. Morgan flags possible hike).
- Whether inflation data will allow the Fed to cut at any point in 2026.
- Whether the June SEP and dot plot will show a different rate path than the March projections.
These uncertainties will be resolved only as new economic data arrives.
Expert perspectives
“The FOMC vote was 11–1 to hold the benchmark interest rate at 3.5%–3.75%, underscoring broad support within the Committee for the current stance.”
— Michael McKee, Bloomberg correspondent (Bloomberg)
“Goldman Sachs Research does not expect the Fed to lower rates until 2027; their baseline now features no cuts in 2026.”
— David Mericle, chief U.S. economist, Goldman Sachs (Goldman Sachs)
“J.P. Morgan currently projects that the Fed will hold rates steady for the rest of 2026, with its next move more likely to be a 25‑basis‑point hike rather than a cut.”
— J.P. Morgan Global Research (J.P. Morgan)
“The Kalshi contract for the June 2026 meeting will expire at the first 2:05 p.m. ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for the June 17, 2026 meeting.”
— Kalshi event market description (Kalshi)
The consensus among top economists is that a rate cut in 2026 is far from guaranteed. For investors, the safe bet is to plan for rates staying higher longer. For homeowners and borrowers, the implication is clear: waiting for a June cut might be a gamble, not a sure thing.
The consequence: financial planning for 2026 should assume the current rate environment persists.
calendarx.com, zforex.com, mnimarkets.com, bankingjournal.aba.com
For a broader perspective on the current rate environment and historical context, you can explore the latest analysis of Federal Reserve interest rates on MediaCircuit.
Frequently asked questions
What time is the Fed rate decision announced?
The decision is typically released at 2:00 p.m. ET on the second day of the FOMC meeting, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET (Equals Money).
How often does the Fed meet each year?
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year, approximately every six to eight weeks (Federal Reserve Board).
What is the current federal funds rate?
As of the March 18, 2026 meeting, the target range is 3.50%–3.75% (Equals Money).
How does the Fed decide whether to cut rates?
The FOMC assesses a range of data — inflation (PCE, CPI), employment (jobs report, unemployment), GDP growth, and global risks — and votes on whether to adjust the federal funds rate to meet its dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices.
What is the CME FedWatch Tool?
The CME FedWatch Tool uses fed funds futures prices to estimate the probability of rate changes at upcoming FOMC meetings. It is widely used by traders and analysts (Charles Schwab).
Why does the Fed hold meetings over two days?
The first day involves briefings from staff economists and discussion of economic conditions. The second day is reserved for policy deliberation and the vote. This format allows for thorough debate before a decision is made.
Can the Fed change rates outside of scheduled meetings?
Yes, the FOMC can hold unscheduled meetings in emergencies (e.g., 2020 COVID response), but this is rare. Normally, rate changes happen only at scheduled meetings.